2011-12 Oscar Best Picture Discussion

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Which film will win Best Picture at the Oscars?

The Artist
2
25%
The Artist
2
25%
The Artist
2
25%
The Artist
2
25%
The Descendants
0
No votes
The Descendants
0
No votes
The Descendants
0
No votes
The Descendants
0
No votes
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
0
No votes
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
0
No votes
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
0
No votes
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
0
No votes
The Help
0
No votes
The Help
0
No votes
The Help
0
No votes
The Help
0
No votes
Hugo
0
No votes
Hugo
0
No votes
Hugo
0
No votes
Hugo
0
No votes
Midnight in Paris
0
No votes
Midnight in Paris
0
No votes
Midnight in Paris
0
No votes
Midnight in Paris
0
No votes
Moneyball
0
No votes
Moneyball
0
No votes
Moneyball
0
No votes
Moneyball
0
No votes
The Tree of Life
0
No votes
The Tree of Life
0
No votes
The Tree of Life
0
No votes
The Tree of Life
0
No votes
War Horse
0
No votes
War Horse
0
No votes
War Horse
0
No votes
War Horse
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 8

Re: 2011-12 Oscar Best Picture Discussion

Postby G-Man on Mon Dec 26, 2011 6:34 pm

Hey all. No major nominations last week out of the Big 10 (and there won't be any this week either). Just thought I'd update the tallies of the popular vote after a few more minor players listed winners and nominees last week:

24 Points: The Artist (10 wins)

21 Points: The Descendants (5 wins)

18 Points: Drive (1 win)

17 Points: The Tree of Life (4 wins)

16 Points: Hugo (1 win)

12 Points: Midnight in Paris

9 Points: The Help

8 Points: Moneyball

6 Points: War Horse

4 Points: 50/50; Shame

3 Points: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Melancholia; My Week With Marylin; Take Shelter; Win Win

2 Points: Bridesmaids; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; The Ides of March; Super 8

1 Point: Beginners; A Better Life; Coriolanus;Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Pt. 2; J. Edgar; Margaret; Martha Marcy May Marlene; The Muppets; Pariah; Rampart; A Separation; The Skin I Live In; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Warrior


Also, reviews are in for some of the films that were also thought to be possible Oscar contenders. The results are interesting:

Carnage- lukewarm reviews
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close- Straight up the middle on being likeable and sappy
The Iron Lady- Reviews are still coming in but it's a lukewarm reception so far
War Horse- Top critics on RT like it more than the small time critics but many are saying it's emotionally manipulative
We Bought a Zoo- mixed reviews

Looks like War Horse may still have a chance at getting an Oscar nom but it will likely turn into one of those films people will discover when they wonder what other films were nominated that year.
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Re: 2011-12 Oscar Best Picture Discussion

Postby G-Man on Tue Jan 03, 2012 1:54 am

Howdy again! Last week was all but dead for Oscar stuff. This week marks a couple of crucial guild nominations, so we'll have lots to talk about as the week progresses.

Anywho, Phoenix and Austin named their winners last week, as well as nominees from the Online critics group. Here's how the standings look so far if we counted all the copycat critics groups...

26 Points: The Artist (11 wins)

22 Points: The Descendants (5 wins)

20 Points: Drive (1 win)

18 Points: Hugo (2 wins); The Tree of Life (4 wins)

13 Points: Midnight in Paris

9 Points: The Help

8 Points: Moneyball

6 Points: War Horse

4 Points: 50/50; Melancholia; Shame; Take Shelter

3 Points: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; My Week with Marylin; Win Win

I didn't bother with the 1 and 2 point films because they have no honest chance of doing anything now. Not much action at all, really, except that Hugo moved up a notch to tie with Tree of Life. It will be interesting if the guilds like Drive as much as the critics have. Very much a dark horse if there was one.
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Re: 2011-12 Oscar Best Picture Discussion

Postby G-Man on Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:52 am

Quite a bit of activity last week, so let's update a few things. First, here's the award season calendar featuring all the major awards we're tracking:

12/01/11: NBR Awards
12/13/11: BFCA Nominations
12/14/11: SAG Nominations
12/15/11: GG Nominations
12/19/11: SEFCA Awards
12/27/11: Oscar Nomination Ballots Mailed
01/04/12: PGA Nominations
01/04/12: ADG Nominations
01/05/12: WGA Nominations

01/09/12: DGA Nominations
01/12/12: BFCA Awards
01/13/12: Oscar nomination Deadline
01/15/12: GG Awards
01/16/12: ACE Nominations
01/21/12: PGA Awards
01/24/12: Oscar Nominations
01/28/12: DGA Awards
01/29/12: SAG Awards
02/01/12: Oscar Final Ballot Mailed
02/04/12: ADG Awards
02/18/12: ACE Awards
02/19/12: WGA Awards
02/21/12: Oscar Final Ballots Due
02/26/12: Oscar Night!

NBR=National Board of Review, BFCA=Broadcast Film Critics Association, SAG=Screen Actors Guild, GG=Golden Globes, SEFCA=Southeastern Film Critics Association, PGA=Producers Guild of America, ADG=Art Directors Guild, WGA=Writers Guild of America, DGA=Directors Guild of America, ACE=American Cinema Editors


Friday is the Oscar nomination deadline. This means that anything happening after Friday will have an impact on who wins the Oscar, not who gets nominated. Interesting how ACE doesn't unveil nominations until after the Oscar deadlines. I'll have to check my stats and see if there is a lot of variance between ACE film awards and the Oscar for editing.

This past week, the following groups announced nominees and winners (important groups are in bold):
Art Directors Guild
Central Ohio Film Critics Assoc.
Denver Film Critics
National Society of Film Critics
Producers Guild of America
Vancouver Film Critics
Writers Guild of America


If we counted everything, the upper half of the leader board would look like this:

31 Points: The Artist (11 wins)

29 Points: The Descendants (5 wins)

22 Points: Drive (2 wins), Hugo (2 wins), The Tree of Life (4 wins)

16 Points: Midnight in Paris

12 Points: The Help

11 Points: Moneyball

7 Points: Melancholia (1 win), War Horse

6 Points: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5 Points: 50/50, Bridesmaids, Take Shelter, Win Win

4 Points: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Ides of March, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Shame

Quite a bit of separation, which will complicate the Oscar nominations. At least five films will be nominated, so if we can trust the 'popular vote' so far, there will definitely be a few weaker options on the list as also rans.

Here's a look at how the ADG, PGA and WGA nominations altered what we're considering the 'true Oscar standings':

8 Points: The Descendants*

7 Points: The Artist, The Help, Hugo*

6 Points: Midnight in Paris

5 Points: Bridesmaids, Moneyball, War Horse

4 Points: Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

3 Points: The Ides of March, The Tree of Life

2 Points: 50/50, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2, Win Win

1 Point: The Adventures of Tintin, Anonymous, Captain America, Cowboys & Aliens, J. Edgar, My Week with Marylin, Pirates of the Caribbean 4, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Young Adult

Pretty easy to figure out which ones picked up nominations for Art Direction, no? :P A little rule of thumb to keep in mind- for a film to snag Best Picture, it helps to get a minimum of two of the four most influential guild (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA) to nominate you. A few films have pulled it off with only one guild nom but it's all but necessary to score two. Obviously, the PGA nom is essential. SAG has been important since their 2nd awards year. The others can certainly help that final Oscar push as well. The DGA unveils their nominees on Monday, so after that, we should be able to thing the herd significantly.

Also worth noting is that The Descendants pulled ahead of The Artist in the 'true' leader board because the Writers Guild of America only nominates guild members for their award. Not a member? Too bad, so sad say they. This is the kind of guild nepotism that irks me about awards season. I mean, really- it's as if they're suggesting that only members of the WGA have recognizable talent. Irksome, irksome, irksome. But it does make for a fun little twist to The Artist's supposed easy ride to Oscar glory.

I'll post another update mid-week after the DGA nominations are up. That's sure to make a difference!
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Re: 2011-12 Oscar Best Picture Discussion

Postby G-Man on Tue Jan 24, 2012 5:08 am

Here's an update to our awards season schedule! It's been what, two weeks since my last update? The Oscar nominations come out tomorrow/today (depending on your time zone), which means we entre the next phas of our prediction process. Stay tuned for more later this week as we look at each of the Best Picture nominees.

12/01/11: NBR Awards
12/13/11: BFCA Nominations
12/14/11: SAG Nominations
12/15/11: GG Nominations
12/19/11: SEFCA Awards
12/27/11: Oscar Nomination Ballots Mailed
01/04/12: PGA Nominations
01/04/12: ADG Nominations
01/05/12: WGA Nominations
01/09/12: DGA Nominations
01/12/12: BFCA Awards
01/13/12: Oscar nomination Deadline
01/15/12: GG Awards
01/16/12: ACE Nominations
01/21/12: PGA Awards

01/24/12: Oscar Nominations
01/28/12: DGA Awards
01/29/12: SAG Awards
02/01/12: Oscar Final Ballot Mailed
02/04/12: ADG Awards
02/18/12: ACE Awards
02/19/12: WGA Awards
02/21/12: Oscar Final Ballots Due
02/26/12: Oscar Night!

NBR=National Board of Review, BFCA=Broadcast Film Critics Association, SAG=Screen Actors Guild, GG=Golden Globes, SEFCA=Southeastern Film Critics Association, PGA=Producers Guild of America, ADG=Art Directors Guild, WGA=Writers Guild of America, DGA=Directors Guild of America, ACE=American Cinema Editors


In the last two weeks, there's been only some minor adjustments. Here are the top 11 films according to the 'popular' vote (all critics, guilds and awards group nominations/wins):

1. The Artist- 36 nominations, 17 wins
2. The Descendants- 35 nominations, 8 wins
3. Hugo- 28 nominations, 2 wins
4. Drive- 24 nominations, 2 wins
5. The Tree of Life- 23 nominations, 6 wins
6. Midnight in Paris- 18 nominations, 0 wins
7. The Help- 14 nominations, 0 wins
8. Moneyball- 13 nominations, 0 wins
9. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo- 10 nominations, 0 wins
9. War Horse- 10 nominations, 1 win
11. Melancholia- 8 nominations, 1 win

...and here's how things look for the Top 10 according to the critics, guilds and awards group that hold statistical significance:

1. The Descendants- 10 nominations, 2 wins
2. The Artist- 9 nominations, 3 wins
2. Hugo- 9 nominations, 1 win
4. Midnight in Paris- 8 nominations, 0 wins
5. The Help- 7 nominations, 0 wins
6. Bridesmaids- 6 nominations, 0 wins
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo- 6 nominations, 0 wins
6. Moneyball- 6 nominations, 0 wins
6. War Horse- 6 nominations, 0 wins
10. Drive- 4 nominations, 0 wins

The Tree of Life has dropped out of the running, numerically speaking among the top tier of awards we're tracking. It might still be Academy-grade material though. The Descendants is in the lead with a big asterisk (the Writer's Guild only nominates guild members) and The Artist is starting to rack up the wins where they really matter- the guild groups. The PGA win is pretty big. They pull a 68% Win-Win figure which, while not statistically significant for our purposes, it packs a punch. The PGA winner has gone on to claim the Oscar the last four years straight.

So that's where we are! The nominations are just hours away and the Director's Guild hands out their awards on Saturday. The DGA is on the verge of being the only group to crack an 80% win-win score. A correct choice this year could very well put them over the top. Stay tuned!
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Re: 2011-12 Oscar Best Picture Discussion

Postby G-Man on Fri Jan 27, 2012 11:48 pm

Okay! The nominations are out and this thread becomes an entirely different ballgame. As it turns out, six of the films that I considered possible nominees made the final field of nine! Here are the final contenders in alphabetical order:

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse


The Artist
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 97/100
IMDB Score: 8.5
Metacritic Score: 89
It's a French black-and-white silent film. It sounds like a crazy choice for Best Picture but this has turned out to be one of those 'little films that could' like Slumdog Millionaire a few years ago. The festival circuit fell in love with it and so has just about everyone in the industry. The Academy likes films about Hollywood, the film industry, and entertainment in general. This makes this film a prime target for Academy votes because it's all about the transition to the sound era in the late 1920s. I hope to catch it in theaters in another week or two but from what I hear, it captures the best elements of the silent film era.


The Descendants
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 90/90
IMDB Score: 7.8
Metacritic Score: 84
This film has been talked about for quite some time. In fact, some of the movie blogs out there had it on their radars after last year's Oscar ceremony. The Academy loves George Clooney. He has friends all over Hollywood. The story is a modern tale of a man trying to put his life and family back together. Is it extraordinary enough to win Bets Picture? Time will tell, but it's considered the only film capable of dethroning The Artist.


Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 46/51
IMDB Score: 6.3
Metacritic Score: 46
Ah the surprise nomination. This film, critically speaking, is out of its league. It got in because it's a sentimental film involving two Oscar-winners (Tom Hanks & Sandra Bullock) and part of the tale deals with 9/11. This film will not win and only got in because of sentimental voters throwing some sympathy votes towards a film they liked on a personal level more than a technical and professional level.


The Help
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 76/68
IMDB Score: 8.1
Metacritic Score: 62
This film is uber-popular and was something of a sleeper hit that got everyone talking. Several strong acting roles give this film potential to be a dark horse akin to Driving Miss Daisy because the acting branch casts a long shadow within the Academy. I doubt it will win but it just might help split the vote a bit and make the end result much closer.


Hugo
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 94/92
IMDB Score: 8.2
Metacritic Score: 83
I really underestimated this film. It's right up there with The Artist and The Descendants in the categories that matter. The only thing holding it back could be the fantasy nature of the film. The Academy has already thrown a bone to the fantasy genre and probably won't be inclined to do so again except for maybe The Hobbit films. It's been described as a love letter to early cinema, but with The Artist focusing more directly on showbiz, will it all be for naught? If any film is going to win besides The Artist or The Descendants, this will be it.


Midnight in Paris
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 93/95
IMDB Score: 7.8
Metacritic Score: 81
Woody Allen is still making movies and this one was his most successful ever. There are a lot of old timers in the Academy and they love to pat each other on the back when they can, but there are too many other quality films in the running for this to pose a serious threat for the top prize. Had it been a weak year for movies, this could have easily been a frontrunner.


Moneyball
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 95/97
IMDB Score: 7.8
Metacritic Score: 87
One of the best-received films of the year, critically, this was also a popular film at the box office. Will a story about manipulating baseball rosters resonate with Academy voters who don't play fantasy baseball religiously? Probably not. It could steal some votes away from the top dogs though.


The Tree of Life
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 84/88
IMDB Score: 7.1
Metacritic Score: 85
It won the Palm d'Or at Cannes. Trouble is only two American films have ever won Cannes and the Oscar. The last time it happened? 1955. Not a good sign for this polarizing film that critics like but audiences are split on. I could see it getting some respect votes from the more eccentric wings of the Academy but again, the field is too strong I fear. Had audiences likes it more, it could be at the top.


War Horse
Rotten Tomatoes Scores: 76/82
IMDB Score: 7.3
Metacritic Score: 72
They've been hitting us over the head with this film since January of 2011. Frankly, it's overexposed for me. Some found it riveting and beautiful while others feel Spielberg is just going through the motions and knows how to manipulate an audience. It's a sentimental pick that won't get very far since it got largely ignored by the guilds.



To sum this all up, there's no clear winner yet. In fact, by my standards, The Descendants is actually in the lead. We've got our Big Ten categories, but we can also add to that the Academy Awards for Best Director, Best Editing, and Best Screenplay (Original or Adapted- it doesn't matter which). These three awards are also statistically significant in the Oscar race. Each category surpasses our 80% threshold on their own, but get this- over 80% of Best Picture winners received a nomination in all three categories. We'll have to keep an eye on that.

So, here's a look at our Big 13 leaderboard. I'm working on adding a few more critics groups to the 'popular vote' totals- there were other groups I haven't been tracking but will going forward now.

The Best Picture Race:
1) The Descendants- 13 points (2 wins)

2) The Artist- 12 points (3 wins)

2) Hugo- 12 points (1 win)

4) Midnight in Paris- 11 points

5) Moneyball- 8 points

6) The Help- 7 points

7) War Horse- 6 points

8) The Tree of Life- 4 points

9) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close- 2 points


The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo all picked nominations for Director, Editing and Screenplay, so they are clearly locked into the lead. Midnight in Paris snagged nods for Director and Screenplay. Moneyball landed nods for Screenplay and Editing. The Tree of Life picked up a Directing nod. The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse all got shut out of those three essential categories.

According to our point system, the following films got "snubbed" by being passed over for films with equal or lower scores:

7 points: Bridesmaids; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4 points: Drive; The Ides of March
2 points: 50/50; Harry Potter; My Week with Marylin; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Win Win; Young Adult
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